Archive for June, 2009

Economic Crisis is Really an Accounting Crisis

Monday, June 22nd, 2009

We urge you to write a letter like the one I show below to your Senator and Crongressman.

We urge you to reject the administration’s bailout program for financial institutions. The current crisis is not a true economic crisis, but rather a crisis generated by bad accounting, which has then spread to the economic system. Specifically, the crisis has been caused by artificial fair value accounting, which has applied fire sale rules to assets that are temporarily illiquid rather than permanently impaired.

In the past, fair market value, at least implicitly, has meant the present value of cash flows of assets. Fire sale value was only applied to permanent impairments. However, the SEC and FASB have mandated the fire sale approach to all illiquid assets, with disastrous results to the balance sheets and retained earnings of financial institutions.

Therefore, I urge you to do the following:

1. Mandate that the SEC redefine fair value accounting as present value of cash flows, except for permanent impairments. Fire sale values can be disclosed, but not used to determine balance sheets or retained earnings.

2. Continue the alternative House plan for financial institutions to join in a federal insurance program for these assets, aimed at restoring confidence.

On a related point, the insurance companies under the AIG holding company are all solvent as far as I can tell. None of their assets appear to mandate the fire sale accounting approach, even if it were valid. The illiquid assets that caused the AIG crisis appear to be all in the holding company.

State regulators control the insurance companies and they have properly kept them from paying upstream cash dividends to bail out the holding company. State insurance regulation has done its job. Proper fair value accounting at the holding company level, as I’ve described above, should solve the latter problem.

Paulson is an incredible albatross around the neck of the Republican Party. In any event, his bailout proposal should be rejected.

The above views are my own and are not necessarily those of any professional organization.

Norman E. Hill, FSA, MAAA, Member AICPA, ASCPA
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“Winner and Final Chairman”

Trial Balloon re Gov’t Confiscation of Private Retirement

Saturday, June 20th, 2009


Proposal, Testimony or Trial Balloons at House Education & Labor Committee to set up “Universal Pension Plan,” Meaning Confiscation of $3 Trillion Private Retirement Accounts.

This horrifying disclosure was made in the Accuracy in Media issue of 2 3 09. Apparently, testimony occurred sometime in 2007. Currently, this discussion seems very general, without any specific Bill or provisions. However, the implications are so disturbing that some discussion is appropriate.

Supposedly, these accounts would in the future be used to provide much needed government funds. It is unclear whether only new pension contributions would go into government coffers or whether the existing $3 trillion would also be used. If the latter, consider that funds are composed mostly of common stocks. Since most of these are badly depressed right now, would this mean selling them off at current losses? If so, the funds, along with new contributions, would be invested in government bonds. This is the same approach as with Social Security taxes that are “invested” in a non existent trust fund.

The critical point is that viability of current pension benefits and future benefits to current participants depends on interest and appreciation. Invariably, higher returns are projected and depended on than would ever be available in government bonds. Both selling current common stocks and realizing losses or even investing future contributions in government bonds would lower available returns and therefore reduce benefits.

The question is how such reduced benefits would be allocated. One way would be to leave untouched benefits, mostly retirement benefits, payable to current recipients. The entire brunt of lower investment returns would thus fall on other current participants and future recipients. With the egalitarian sentiments prevalent today, along with Obama’s pious call for “shared responsibility,” it seems more likely that all participants would face reduced benefits.

One approach would be to leave current benefits payable and other benefits accrued to date untouched as long as possible. Then, sometime down the road, the lower investment returns would mean the new “Universal Pension” trust fund, or whatever it is labeled, would run out of money. This, of course, is the eventual fate awaiting Social Security, although projections other than investment return are the problem. One solution to eventual “fund” insolvency would be to mandate increased future contributions from employers, analogous to increased Social Security taxes.

Just like Social Security taxes, it is an eminently safe bet that confiscated private pension funds, current and/or future, would be used to cover current government expenditures. They could cover the mind-boggling deficits that would arise from bailouts.

The above views are my own and are not necessarily those of any professional organization.

Norman E. Hill, FSA, MAAA, Member AICPA, ASCPA
Norm’s Thoughts
Books by Hills
Winner and Final Chairman